THE STORYLINE:
The New York Giants, one of the NFL’s flagship and most storied franchises, enters its 100th season with exceedingly low fan and media expectations. Many forecast the team to remain one of the NFL’s worst. It’s a somewhat odd take given that the team not only appears to be significantly stronger overall from the 2022 team that made the playoffs, but it also has more impact players such as Malik Nabers, Andrew Thomas, Dexter Lawrence, Brian Burns, and Bobby Okereke.
Fairly or not, much of the derision is due to Daniel Jones, a player who has been debated to death. There are those who are convinced team ownership/management will find any excuse to retain Jones, while other are equally convinced this is his last season with the team. What we do know is this: while Jones’ current contract made it impossible for the team to jettison him in 2024, the Giants would have drafted his replacement had Jayden Daniels or Drake Maye been available. We also know the Giants are heavily scouting the 2025 collegiate quarterback class.
Spoiler alert. The 2024 New York Giants are not going to the Super Bowl. However, there are two things the Giants as a franchise need to get out of the 2024 NFL season: (1) prove the arrow is pointed up, and (2) decide once and for all what they are going to do at quarterback. In their third year shepherding the team, General Manager Joe Schoen and Head Coach Brian Daboll have to prove that the overall talent level is getting better and the team is well coached. In his sixth season with the Giants, Daniel has to prove he can stay healthy and be a top 10 quarterback. Both are somewhat, but not completely, connected. The Giants as a team could markedly improve, but still have a problem at quarterback. If so, team management also needs to admit to the problem and find a solution. If not, then their tenure with the team will be short.
Cutting to the chase, 2024 is really about Daniel Jones. Every throw in every game will be over-analyzed. Some fans and media types will only see what they want to see. For the rest of us, Jones has to demonstrate that he can be a successful quarterback with the best supporting cast of his career. Only Jones can shut up the critics and naysayers. Only Jones can ensure his future as a pro starter. He doesn’t have to be perfect. But he has to be good. This is it. He’s out of time.
THE INJURY REPORT:
- QB Drew Lock (abdomen – probable)
- WR Gunner Olszewski (groin – probable)
- OLB Brian Burns (ankle – probable)
- ILB Micah McFadden (groin – probable)
- S Dane Belton (back – probable)
GIANTS ON OFFENSE:
Looking at the big picture, the Giants are significantly better at wide receiver and on the offensive line than they have been in years. The areas that remain open question marks are quarterback, running back, and tight end. Everyone knows about Jones. Will the Giants miss Saquon Barkley or will Devin Singletary and company adequately pick up the slack? Will Theo Johnson quickly develop into a pass-receiving threat?
Any Giants fan with a brain knows that so much of the team’s offensive woes for the past 13 years has been due to the offensive line. Regime after regime have invested high draft picks and free agent resources into the position with no improvement. The Giants hit rock bottom in 2023 when the Giants gave up the second-most sacks in NFL history. Enter Raiders’ offensive line coach Carmen Bricillo, the right side of the Raiders’ offensive line (Greg Van Roten and Jermaine Eluemunor), and Green Bay’s Jon Runyan. Combined with Andrew Thomas, these three new additions appear poised to give the team it’s best line since the team’s last Super Bowl run. Depth also appears better with veteran guard Aaron Stinnie, although there are still concerns at back-up tackle if someone goes down. A good offensive line makes everybody better. What remains to be seen is how many early hiccups there will be due to Runyan and John Michael Schmitz missing too much time this summer due to injury. The first unit has yet to play together as a complete unit.
When the Giants made the playoffs in 2022, the wide receivers Daniel Jones was throwing to included Richie James, Darius Slayton, Isaiah Hodgins (who was claimed off of waivers in November), and Wan’Dale Robinson (who tore his ACL in November). Many forget David Sills and Marcus Johnson started games for the Giants early in the year. Compare that to Malik Nabers, a healthy and more experienced Wan’Dale Robinson, Jalin Hyatt, and a more experienced and grounded Darius Slayton. It’s night and day different. Indeed, this is probably the fast quartet the Giants have had at wide receiver in their 100-year history. All can take a 5-yard pass and turn it into an 80-yard touchdown. What remains to be seen is can these four translate their tremendous potential into demonstrated productivity, and do so with Daniel Jones throwing to them?
Enter a Minnesota Viking defense that improved from 31st in 2022 to 16th in 2023 under then newly-hired Brian Flores. This offseason, the Vikings made a bunch of changes in their defensive personnel, most notably at edge with the additions of free agents Jonathan Greenard and Andrew Van Ginkel as well as 1st-round selection Dallas Turner. Minnesota also signed Stephon Gilmore and Shaquill Griffin at cornerback and Blake Cashman at inside linebacker. In other words, there has been a lot of turnover.
Flores is all about pressure. Only the Giants under Wink Martindale blitzed more in 2023. The Vikes will crowd the line of scrimmage and opposing offenses are not sure who is coming and who is dropping. This is where the veteran offensive line should help the Giants, although the Vikings may really test John Michael Schmitz inside. However, the Giants should feel pretty good about their offensive tackles versus the edge rushers. Cutting down on mental errors versus the organized chaos will be key.
While the Giants pushed the ball down the field more this summer, against this opponent, New York may want to focus early on the short passing game for two reasons. One, it will allow Daniel Jones to settle down a bit and get into a rhythm. Secondly, if the Vikings do come after Jones with a blitz heavy game plan, you don’t really want him holding the ball too long. As mentioned above, this group of Giants receivers can turn any short reception into a long gain. That doesn’t mean Daboll and Jones won’t take their shots, but I think you have to pick your moments.
The X factor in this game is the Giants’ ground game. With Barkley gone and the arrival of Nabers, it’s easy to assume that the running game will take a back seat this year. But that remains to be seen. Last year, the Vikings were stronger against the run than the passing game.
GIANTS ON DEFENSE:
Let’s look at the big picture again. On paper, the Giants are really strong in the front seven with a lot of youth and question marks in the secondary. That can be kind of scary when your opponent has receivers the caliber of Justin Jefferson (arguably the best in the game) and Jordan Addison (who is expected to play despite an ankle injury).
Probably not discussed enough is that this is Shane Bowen’s first go of it as defensive coordinator without defensive-mind Mike Vrabel lurking over his shoulder. Point blank, it remains to be seen if he can hack it in the Big Apple. Like the bulk of NFL defenses, his system is bend-but-don’t-break, wanting to limit big plays and forcing the opposition to drive the field without making mistakes. Against an efficient offense, it can be frustrating, but it’s the new norm.
Jefferson will get his catches and yards. What the Giants want to do is keep him out of the end zone. Look for him to be double-covered throughout the game. That makes the Addison match-up against whichever defensive back he is lined up against very important. We still don’t know who the starting corner opposite of Deonte Banks will be… the options being Cor’Dale Flott, Nick McCloud, or newly re-signed Adoree’ Jackson. Perhaps one of the most important players in this game with be rookie nickel Dru Phillips, who missed quite a bit of time with injury. The Vikings may look to match Jefferson on Phillips at times. I suspect we will see the Giants play a lot of nickel and even dime coverages with a variety of corners, safeties, and even Isaiah Simmons being employed.
Which brings us to Sam Darnold, the physically-talented 3rd overall pick from the 2018 NFL Draft who is now on his fourth team. Like Daniel Jones, Darnold is now surrounded by his best supporting cast of his career. He is quite capable of having a great game. However, Darnold has never dealt with pressure well and has had issues reading/throwing over the middle of the field. Stating the obvious, the Giants want to get heat on him with the pass rush and confuse him in the secondary. He has a 3.1 percent interception percentage (for comparison sake, Jones is 2.1 percent).
Like the Giants, the Vikings also have a very solid offensive line, particularly at tackle. If Brian Burns and Kayvon Thibodeaux are going to get to Darnold, they will have to earn it against LT Christian Darrisaw and RT Brian O’Neill. As most Giants fans know, Dexter Lawrence was a major problem for the Vikings in 2022 and hopefully he can replicate that. However with Leonard Williams long gone, the pressure is on Rakeem Nunez-Roches to perform. Reserves like D.J. Davidson and Elijah Chatman have to be able to give the starters a breather too.
Finally, when you consider the fact that not only did the Vikings exchange Kirk Cousins for Darnold, but also brought in running back Aaron Jones from Green Bay, we may see a Minnesota team that is far more run-centric with a heavier emphasis on play-action passing. The Giants have to be on guard against the Vikings going heavy at times and trying to pound the ball. Bowen would probably prefer that to deep shots to Jefferson, but Jones can also take over a game.
GIANTS ON SPECIAL TEAMS:
The big change here for the Giants is Michael Ghobrial is the new special teams coordinator. Not only is this his first head job in the NFL, but it will be the first time since 2017 that Thomas McGaughey wasn’t leading the unit. Graham Gano is also older and coming off an injury. Gunner Olszewski missed much of the summer with a groin injury, but is expected to play.
QUOTES:
Brian Daboll on the Vikings’ defense: “A lot of new players that they’ve added. It’s a pressure defense. (Brian Flores) pressures often. Sometimes the entire game. I mean you go back, we’ve competed against one another when I was at Buffalo, him in Miami… He presents a variety of challenges with the fronts… So it’ll be a challenge, it’s a challenge mentally. Make sure that you’re on point with everything you need to be on point with to make sure a play works against 11 people that pressure, I’d say, quite often.”
THE FINAL WORD:
My two wild cards in this game are (1) Brian Daboll being the new play-caller, and (2) Daniel Jones. My gut tells me we will enjoy Coach Daboll calling the plays as long as Daniel Jones can execute them properly. This can go one of two ways for Jones. He can embrace this challenge and deliver the goods. Or he can crumble. Tell me which version of Jones we will get and I will tell you who wins the game.
As I said, it’s the year of Daniel Jones.