Game Preview: Atlanta Falcons at New York Giants, November 21, 2004

Approach to the Game – Atlanta Falcons at New York Giants, November 21, 2004: Before it is even played, for better or worse, this game will be remembered as the debut of the Eli Manning era. Understandably, Giants’ fans everywhere are both excited and nervous to finally see the draft’s number one prospect in a game that really counts. The optimists have visions of a Peyton Manning clone in their head; the pessimists worry that not only did we give up too much for Eli, but the Giants did not even draft the best quarterback in the draft. Ben Roethlisberger has certainly set an exceptionally high bar for Eli Manning. But it is important to keep in mind that (1) Roethlisberger did not spend much time on the bench and has not been collecting rust like Eli, (2) Roethlisberger works behind a superior offensive line, and (3) Roethlisberger has better wide receivers.

With respect to the latter two points, while all attention will be on Manning, the truth of the matter is that unless the Giants’ supporting cast starts playing better, Eli will not be able to carry this team by himself. He needs Tiki Barber to continue to be productive as a runner, he needs solid pass protection, and he needs receivers who get open. The Giants are about to face a series of teams with strong pass rushers and Manning is going to take some punishment.

Do the Giants still have a shot at the playoffs this year or are they officially in rebuilding mode? The Atlanta game will give us a good indication.

Giants on Offense: Conventional wisdom says keep it simple and play it conservative. Run the ball and throw short passes. Because this is what Atlanta is expecting, I do not think this is the way to go in this game. The Falcons will likely load up against the run, and put Eli and the offensive pass protection in difficult down-and-distance situations. If you ask me, rather than helping to protect Manning, this is a recipe for getting him roughed up. My solution? Be bold…attack…take some shots down the field on first and second down. Go after the secondary when they least expect it. Yes, Eli will likely take some hits with this game plan too, but I think it is safer to be less predictable.

Besides, Atlanta’s defense is giving up about 95 yards per game on the ground (second in the NFC) and 248 yards through the air (15th in the NFC). However, I do think Atlanta’s rush defense is overrated. The Falcon defensive line is athletic and active, but they can be pushed around some if the offensive line is able to sustain their blocks. RDE Brady Smith (15 tackles, 4 sacks) is not real stout against the run, but is a hard-working blue collar-type who will battle you, and he can get some heat on the passer. LT Luke Petitgout, despite his pass protection woes this year, has been run blocking very well. Ed Jasper (23 tackles, 1 sack) plays the right defensive tackle (or nose tackle in the Falcons 4-3 scheme). He will line up over LG Jason Whittle. Jasper is their best run defender at the point-of-attack, but not much of a pass rusher. LDT Rod Coleman (19 tackles, 6 sacks) plays the undertackle position. He is the guy who the Giants’ pushed hard to sign in the offseason and almost landed. Coleman is one of the big reasons why the Falcons’ defense is playing so well. While undersized, Coleman is very quick and can obviously rush the passer. The RG Chris Snee-Coleman match-up is probably the biggest of the day for the Giants. Snee does have problems with quick pass rushers and this is a battle the Falcons we be favored to win. However, Snee should be able to move Coleman out on the running game if he sustains his blocks. Coleman is not a strong run defender at the point-of-attack. He makes his plays by out-quicking his opponent and penetrating. The other potential scary match-up for the Giants is LDE Patrick Kerney (43 tackles, 8 sacks) against RT David Diehl. Kerney has twice as many sacks as any play on the Giants; his quickness as a pass rusher gives opponents fits.

Unfortunately for the Giants, the strength of the Falcons’ defensive line (Coleman and Kerney) will be lining up against the most inexperienced portion of the Giants offensive line (Snee and Diehl). And what both Coleman and Kerney are good at (pass rush) is what Snee and Diehl are not real strong at (pass protection). In my mind, this is where the game will be won or lost. As I said, conventional wisdom says play it safe and run the ball at these two, thereby giving Snee and Diehl more confidence. This may be the correct solution. But I have a feeling that Atlanta is going to make that difficult by playing the linebackers and strong safety close to the line.

The Falcons have good linebackers. WLB Keith Brooking (63 tackles, 1 sack) is one of the better linebackers in the game. He can do it all. MLB Chris Draft (32 tackles) is athletic, but not real natural in coverage. His lack of bulk sometimes hurts taking on blocks as well. SLB Matt Stewart (40 tackles) is one of the better strongside linebackers in the game. But he too at times will have some problems in coverage. This group likes to run and chase and benefits from the chaos created up front by the down four.

The big addition to the secondary was rookie first round CB DeAngelo Hall, who is one of the best athletes in the game. He starts at left corner and will line up over Ike Hilliard. Hilliard is not beating anyone with speed, so Ike will have to make his plays by gain separation on his cuts. Hilliard is capable of making plays underneath in this fashion as Hall will guess wrong at times. Amani Toomer (who was banged up in the Cardinals game) will face right cornerback Jason Webster. Webster is a good athlete, but only an average corner. The Giants NEED Toomer to make some big plays in this game, including a touchdown or two.

The one guy who probably will benefit the most with Manning now starting is WR Jamaar Taylor. Manning and Taylor worked a lot together in camp, the preseason, and on the scout team. And Manning likes to throw down the field.

The other guy who should do better is Shockey. However, I have not been impressed with Shockey’s focus or passion on the field this year. In fact, if you ask me, Shockey is still living off his rookie hype. If he wants to be truly considered a great tight end, he needs to make more plays in the passing game. Contrary to popular belief, he is often sent out on pass patterns. I would expect the Falcons to keep second-year SS Bryan Scott on him. Scott has better coverage skills than most strong safeties.

With Marcellus Rivers being promoted this week, Eli will have another more experienced tight end/H-Back to dump the ball off to this week. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Marcellus make some key plays (he most likely was working a lot with Manning on the scout team too).

My big concerns with Manning are (1) fan expectations, and (2) nervousness. Manning probably will have little control over either. If people remember, he was pretty nervous at his first mini-camp and his first appearance in the preseason. I would not be shocked to see some balls sail on him early (this would argue for the more conservative, conventional attack that the Falcons will expect).

Giants on Defense: Well, we know the Giants can’t beat Falcon back-up quarterbacks (see Doug Johnson and Kurt Kittner) so they should have an easy time of it with Michael Vick!(sarcasm off)

Vick is the media focal point, but the Falcons have a lot of weapons to worry about. Giant fans should remember that Atlanta’s two-headed running back tandem of Warrick Dunn (the quick, slashing runner) and T.J. Duckett (the big, pound back that Dayne was supposed to be) has given the Giants’ fits in the past. Dunn is a threat as a cutback runner and as a receiver out of the backfield. Duckett will run over people. The Giants’ run defense against the Cardinals last week was not overly impressive and I would expect Atlanta to run at the Giants quite a bit, especially when Reggie Torbor is playing defensive end. The Falcon offensive line is not a strength of the team, but they are well-coached under former Denver Bronco OL-guru Alex Gibbs who likes to teach his players very questionable cut blocking tactics (the Giants tried to hire Gibbs in the offseason).

The real weapon besides Vick is TE Alge Crumpler (35 catches). He – not Shockey – will be the best tight end on the field at the Meadowlands on Sunday. Crumpler is a big, physical two-way tight end who can block and make big pass plays down the field. The problem with giving him too much attention is that it hampers a defense’s ability to put a spy on Vick. For example, I think the guy I would want to spy Vick (SS Gibril Wilson) is the same guy best-suited to cover Crumpler. Also keep in mind that Wilson is not 100 percent as he suffered a burner in the Cardinal game. The guy really on the spot in terms of jamming and staying with Crumpler, if you ask me, is Carlos Emmons. One of the reasons why the Giants signed Emmons was to improve their play against opposing tight ends. The Giants need their best from Carlos on Sunday.

The Falcons run a modified version of the West Coast Offense so coverage on the fullback, Justin Griffith (16 catches), is important as well as Warrick Dunn (12 catches). MLB Kevin Lewis will likely have to make some plays on Griffith, while WLB Nick Greisen’s athleticism will be tested by Dunn.

The Falcons’ receiving corps is average. Peerless Price (23 catches), who will be covered by CB Will Allen, has some speed, but Allen should be able to handle him. Dez White (14 catches) doesn’t play as fast as his timed speed and this is another good match-up for the Giants. Brian Finneran (10 catches) is a good possession receiver and may actually prove to be a bigger thorn.

Then there is Vick. Vick certainly receives a lot of press. His detractors are as passionate as his supporters. However you may feel, Vick has improved his ability to throw the football this year. He has a rocket for an arm and can make some throws that no other quarterback in this league can make. I saw him strong-arm one throw last week to a receiver on the far side of the field despite having a man right in his face and falling backwards. And at times, his deep throws are incredibly accurate. But like almost all young quarterbacks, Vick is inconsistent. Where Vick is the most dangerous is running the football. He is the fastest, quickest running quarterback to ever play the game. The Falcons like to roll him out and give him the option to run or pass and sometimes he will just take off and sprint away from everyone for a 40-yard gain. This type of play puts tremendous strain on the linebackers and secondary. Do you cover your zone (teams usually have to stay in zone coverage because of his threat to run) or run up to stop Vick? How much of a threat is Vick? He has 536 rushing yards and is averaging over 7 yards-per-rushing attempt!!! Everything the Giants do on defense on Sunday must be predicated on one thing – keep containment on Michael Vick. The pass rush will suffer, but it has to. If you rush Vick in an undisciplined manner, he will beat you with his feet. No debate. So don’t worry about sacks, keep those rush lanes occupied. And for God’s sake, get a bunch of hats around Vick and tackle the man. You can’t shut him down completely on the ground, but you have to limit his damage.

Whoever plays end – Osi Umenyiora, Lance Legree, Reggie Torbor, Lorenzo Bromell, Chuck Wiley – must not let Vick get around the edge too easily. They can’t pursue plays too hard or they will get burned. I’d like to keep Torbor in the game, but the Falcons would then simply run the ball at him. The other problem for the Giants in keeping Vick contained is that their linebackers are slow. Vick will run circles around these guys, unless Barrett Green plays and is healthy (both questionable). I would keep Gibril Wilson on Vick.

The best news for the Giants? Vick, Dunn, and Duckett will fumble; and Vick has as many interceptions (7) as he does touchdown passes. The Giants’ defense must start creating some turnovers again and this is a good opponent to do so against.

Giants on Special Teams: Allen Rossum is averaging less than 21-yards per return on kickoffs, but he has a history of breaking big returns. It’s on punt returns where Rossum is doing far more damage (over 14 yards per return and a touchdown). Rossum will fumble too.